The annual production capacity of crude steel in China is 7.18 million tons in 2009, 8 tons in 2010 and 8.63 billion tons in 2011. It is expected to be close to or over 9 million tons in 2012. In the month of 2012, the black metal smelting and calendering processing industry completed investment over 450 billion yuan, and it is expected to produce another about 50000000 tons of production capacity. In 2012, only more than 10 blast furnaces were put into operation in Tangshan and Handan in Hebei, with a new capacity of about 20000000 tons. The international market is limited in digestion. The World Steel Association (WSA) has recently predicted that the world's steel consumption will grow by 2.1% and 3.2% in the next two years, obviously below the level of 6.2% in 2011. In the 1-10 month of 2012, the world's crude steel output decreased by 0.5% compared with that of the mainland of China. The difficulty of further expanding exports is bound to increase when the world's capacity is overcapacity. There is no obvious improvement in domestic demand growth. Driven by the policy of "steady growth", infrastructure investment will increase. Steel market, especially long timber demand, is expected to recover, and output and consumption will increase slightly. The demand for the steel industry, such as automobile, shipbuilding and other downstream steel industry, is difficult to improve. At the same time, as iron ore and other raw materials prices increase pressure, product homogenization competition intensified, and serious excess capacity and other factors, it is expected that next year, the situation of high cost, low growth and low profit will continue in the steel industry. Three, analysis of market situation in 2012 continued downturn in the steel industry pattern, the third quarter profit record since 2008 lows, the short term, the next two quarters will continue to losses, and the yield is high, middle and low downstream demand, the steel industry rebound elasticity is insufficient, the steel industry is expected in the second quarter as early as possible to next year to achieve profitability. The annual capacity of 2012 is likely to exceed 10 million tons. In the first 10 months of 2012, the national steel production reached more than 600 million tons, the average monthly output was 50 million tons, and the average daily output was 1 million 930 thousand tons. The output of steel is expected to reach 7.2 billion tons in 2012, up 2.1% from last year. The preliminary statistical capacity utilization ratio is only about 70%. 1, once again intensified the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic steel since the end of August to significantly cut, 4 consecutive days were less than 1 million 900 thousand tons of crude steel production,
This also provides the basis of the supply level for the rise of steel prices in 9 and October. However, the trend of production reduction in steel mills was abruptly stopped in October. In early October, the output of daily crude steel bounced by 4% to 1 million 920 thousand tons, and the output of the crude steel rebounded to 2 million tons in mid October. In October, the iron and steel industry PMI also increased by 22.4% to 51.3%, which directly indicated that the construction rate of steel plant was greatly improved. And the downstream of the industry in 11, December into the off-season, the demand may have a certain decline, the supply and demand environment is deteriorating again. The expected level of factors may also tend to weaken, and the risk of falling steel price shocks is increasing in the future. 2, the stock backlog of steel plant needs to be particularly pointed out, which is in sharp contrast to the storage of steel. It is still difficult for the steel plant to go to stock. According to China Steel Association statistics, in mid October, the inventory of 76 key and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises reached 11 million 40 thousand tons, even though under the influence of the peak season, it was 11% lower than that in early August. However, the inventory of steel mills is still at a high level. The stock of steel plant is accumulated, and the supply level is due to the short time and insufficient strength of the steel mill. The demand level shows the weakness of the terminal demand, and the pressure of the steel plant is very high. On the other hand, traders' behavior in clearing the stock has also affected the middle demand of the steel plant. The dismal operation of the steel plant overlay high stock, making the cash flow of the steel plant tight and expected to further clean up the stock in the future. The behavior of the steel factory's clear inventory will also suppress the future steel price. Four, industry trends and the impact of metallurgical lime industry in 2013, the global economic situation is still grim, slow recovery in developed economies, structural adjustment is weak, affected by the sovereign debt crisis, fiscal stimulus space compression, while private sector demand can not replace public demand, the lack of economic growth momentum. In 2013, although the developed economies will continue to maintain a loose monetary policy, fiscal policy is focused on long-term consolidation. Even if there is no deep crisis, growth will also be below 2%. Although the economic growth of emerging economies is better than that of developed countries, but because of the turbulence of international market and the deterioration of export conditions, the impact of capital flows is increasing. Under the prospect of slowing global demand, RMB appreciation and trade protectionism, China's steel exports in 2013 will probably not reach the level of 2012. It is estimated that steel exports will remain at around 40 million tons in the whole year. To sum up, in 2013, China's steel industry will face a slowdown in the growth of domestic and foreign demand. Under the guidance of the "12th Five-Year plan", iron and steel industry will be progressively promoted in terms of energy conservation, emission reduction, elimination of backward products and upgrading of steel product quality. The structural surplus of steel market will be improved. Five. The situation of industry competition and its significance to metallurgical lime industry. The development of metallurgical lime industry is greatly influenced by the downstream industry. Downstream of the rapid development of the industry, the metallurgical lime demand will continue to KuoDa, driven by rapid development of metallurgical lime industry; development of the downstream industry downturn, reducing the demand of metallurgical lime, hinder metallurgical lime industry forward. The current development status of metallurgical lime downstream industry, in recent years, the domestic steel industry has maintained a rapid development, but the competition is also gradually increasing, in improving metallurgical lime industry bargaining power at the same time, also exacerbated the volatility of the market sales of metallurgical lime industry. 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